FAO predicts a significant decline in global grain production

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FAO issued its updated cereal production forecast for 2022, with a significantly lower outlook.
Global cereal production is anticipated to decline by 38.9 million tonnes, or 1.4 percent, from the previous year, according to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, writes SEEDS.

The bulk of the downward revision concerns coarse grains, with maize yields in the European Union expected to drop 16 percent below their five-year average level due to the exceptional hot and dry weather conditions. By contrast, FAO raised its forecast for world wheat production from its last report in July to 777 million tonnes, a negligible drop from 2021, on the back of expected record harvests in the Russian Federation and conducive weather conditions in North America. Global rice production is expected to drop by 2.1 percent from its all-time high reached in 2021, due primarily to uneven rainfall distribution in India and Bangladesh.

World cereal utilization for 2022/2023 is now pegged at 2 792 million tonnes, while global cereal stocks at the close of the 2023 seasons are expected to contract by 2.1 percent to 845 million tonnes. As a result, the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall slightly from 30.9 percent in 2021/22 to 29.5 percent, a level FAO notes is still relatively high form a historical perspective.

World trade in cereals is predicted to decline by 1.9 percent in 2022/2023 (July/June) from the year-earlier period, to 469.6 million tonnes.

Further details are available here.

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