First FAO forecasts: high wheat harvest expected in 2023

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In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief FAO released its preliminary forecast for world wheat production in 2023, predicting a global outturn of 784 million tonnes, which would be the second highest on record though down from the previous year. Strong outputs are expected in North America, as farmers increase acreage in response to high grain prices.

In southern hemisphere countries, the production outlook for coarse grain crops in 2023 is generally favourable, and total maize plantings in Brazil are foreseen to reach a record level.

FAO has also revised upwards its projection for world cereal production in 2022 to 2 774 million tonnes, still 1.3 percent lower than in 2021.

Global cereal utilization in 2022/23 is forecast at 2 780 million tonnes, representing a 0.6-percent decline from the previous season, largely due to an anticipated contraction in the utilization of all major coarse grains.

FAO forecasts global cereal stocks ending in 2023 to decline by 1.2 percent from their opening levels, down to 844 million tonnes, as drawdowns in coarse grain and to a lesser extent rice stocks are foreseen to outweigh an expected build-up in wheat inventories. Based on the new forecasts, the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio would stand at 29.5 percent, deemed an “overall comfortable level”.

World trade in cereals is predicted to contract by 1.8 percent to 473 million tonnes.



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